The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary driver of global warming, rose at an unprecedented rate in 2024, surpassing all previous records, scientists report. This alarming trend places the international target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in grave jeopardy.
CO2 levels are now over 50% higher than they were before industrial activity began in earnest. The surge is attributed to record-high fossil fuel emissions and reduced natural carbon absorption due to wildfires and drought.
Key Highlights:
- Record CO2 Levels: Atmospheric CO2 reached over 424 parts per million (ppm), the highest in at least two million years.
- Fossil Fuel Emissions: Emissions from coal, oil, and gas combustion hit new highs, contributing to the rapid increase.
- Natural World Struggles: Wildfires and weakened carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, absorbed less CO2 than usual.
- El Niño’s Impact: The natural climate phenomenon exacerbated the situation by reducing land-based carbon absorption and increasing wildfire emissions.
Scientific Warnings
Richard Betts of the Met Office emphasized that the rising CO2 levels are incompatible with the global pledge to limit warming to 1.5°C. The Met Office predicts a slightly slower CO2 increase in 2025 due to the cooling effects of La Niña, but the trajectory remains significantly off track.
Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography warned that the accelerated rise in CO2 is pushing the planet into “uncharted territory.” Meanwhile, the Amazon rainforest and Arctic tundra, historically vital carbon sinks, are increasingly becoming sources of CO2 due to deforestation, warming, and fires.
A Grim Outlook
While the Met Office forecasts a temporary dip in the rate of CO2 increase, warming is expected to resume as CO2 continues to accumulate. Scientists urge immediate and sustained reductions in fossil fuel use and deforestation to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
The challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement target grows steeper as every year passes, with scientists calling for swift, coordinated global action to mitigate emissions and enhance natural carbon absorption.
