More than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections by 2050, according to a study published Monday in The Lancet.
The study predicts a nearly 70% increase in deaths due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from 2022 to 2050, with older populations most at risk. AMR occurs when microbes, like bacteria and fungi, evolve to resist current medications, making infections harder to treat.
“This is a major issue, and it’s here to stay,” said Christopher J. L. Murray, the study’s senior author and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
While AMR has long been recognized as a public health concern, this study — part of the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project — is the first to analyze global AMR trends over time. The World Health Organization has warned that AMR not only complicates treatment for common infections but also increases the risks of medical procedures, such as chemotherapy and Caesarean sections.
Analyzing 520 million datasets from 204 countries, the researchers found that over a million AMR-related deaths occurred annually between 1990 and 2021. The study suggests that this number will continue to rise, with an estimated 39 million deaths projected by 2050, equating to three deaths every minute.
While AMR deaths among children under five have decreased by 50% since 1990, fatalities among those aged 70 and older have increased by over 80%. The study forecasts that by 2050, deaths among seniors will double, outpacing other age groups.
The burden of AMR will not be evenly distributed globally, with South Asia expected to account for 30% of projected deaths, and sub-Saharan Africa also seeing significant fatalities.
The study highlights the urgent need for improved antibiotic stewardship, better access to clean water, vaccines, and the development of new antibiotics to combat AMR.
Murray stressed the importance of a unified global response, stating, “You can’t do this piecemeal. A concerted global effort is needed.”
