Islamabad went on the back foot soon after it carried out airstrikes in Afghanistan, indicating its reluctance to get into long-term military action, thanks to the lack of international support, weak economic situation and instability at home. Political fragility at home and foreign policy failure made Pakistan’s Afghan policy reactive and fragmented, and led Islamabad to switch to coercive airstrikes from strategic engagement.
Pakistan’s action to eliminate the TehrikeTaliban Pakistan (TTP) through military action inside Afghanistan would only worsen the situation, said Sami Yousufzai, a political analyst. “Afghanistan has little to lose, but as a more stable nation, Pakistan should avoid irresponsible actions. Such attacks will not eliminate the TTP. Instead, it will likely increase their support,” he said. There are over 6,000 TTP operatives who can easily infiltrate Pakistan, and now they may react to the recent airstrikes, said Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based security analyst.
The situation is not under control now. Islamabad cannot rein in the TTP, as it cannot leverage the wartime support it offered the Taliban during the US war in Afghanistan, said Joshua White, a professor in international affairs at Johns Hopkins University. “Pakistan finds itself in a predicament largely of its own making—the Taliban leadership that it supported throughout much of the 20-year insurgency in Afghanistan is now sheltering militant groups targeting Islamabad,” White said. Pakistan’s relations have continued to deteriorate since Taliban took the control of Kabul, thanks to increased TTP-led violence and deportation of almost half a million Afghan refugees, said Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow at the Chatham House, a London-based independent policy institute. “Islamabad has arguably lost some of its strategic significance in the West following the US/ NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan,” he said.
Factors such as– dented image on the international stage, the proxy groups it created becoming liability, and the Taliban getting access to sophisticated weaponry that US left –have made Pakistan’s security and defence positions more vulnerable and fragile, said geopolitical analyst Malik Ayub Sumbal. “The current challenge Pakistan faces is dangerous and surrounded by concerns and risks. At this stage, Pakistan has to extend its dialogue and peace process with Afghanistan by engaging regional strategic partners who can lead toward long-lasting peace and a pause in the increasing militant attacks,” he said. Notably, Pakistan did not receive active supporters from its allies, pushing it to announce ceasefire with Afghanistan. Even the all-weather friend China took no sides and asked both countries to “remain calm and restrained” and expressed its willingness to “play a constructive role in improving and developing” the bilateral relations.
Subsequently, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said “If they want to talk on our valid conditions and want to resolve through dialogue we are ready for that.” While Pakistan claimed the ceasefire was at Afghanistan’s request, the Taliban government’s spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid cleared later that it had been on “the request and insistence of the Pakistani side, the ceasefire between the two countries will begin..” Even if Pakistan threatened Afghanistan with more attacks, there would be no intended outcome. Abdullah Baheer, a Kabul-based political analyst, said civilians dying in Pakistani attacks was “a problematic model” as not a single TTP operative was found dead in the airstrikes. Porous border makes things tough for Pakistani security forces. “This logic of bombing Afghanistan into submission didn’t work for the United States for 20 years of their occupation. Why do we think it will work now?” Baheer said.
On economic front, Pakistan is not faring well. The World Bank and IMF have described Pakistan’s outlook as fragile and warned that downside risks remain exceptionally high. The short armed conflict with India in May 2025 had made Pakistan’s economic condition precarious. Islamabad should not engage in any military escalation, Yousuf Nazar, former Head of Citigroup’s Emerging Markets Investments, had said. “Any further military escalation could jeopardise access to foreign capital markets and bilateral financing, compounding repayment challenges and straining reserves. The IMF programme itself could be thrown off course by heightened geopolitical risk,” he said.
Pakistan’s reputed daily newspaper Dawn advised the Islamabad government to act with sagacity when the military tensions with India were still high. “There is an urgent need to address the core issues affecting Pak-Afghan ties and prevent the situation from transforming into a full-blown conflict. While the nation must be defended against foreign aggression, a long-term conflict against Afghanistan should be eschewed,” it said in its editorial. (by, A R M Delwar Hossain, Journalist & views are personal)
