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October and November Could Be Critical for Sri Lanka Amid El Niño Conditions

September 23, 2026

Meteorologists have warned that October and November could be critical months for Sri Lanka, particularly amid the risk of heavy rainfall, strong winds and landslides.

According to Deputy Director of the Forecasting and Early Warning Division at the Department of Meteorology, J.W. Karunaratne, developing El Niño conditions could further intensify the prevailing rainy weather.

Speaking to the Daily Mirror, Karunaratne said a low-pressure system over the Andaman Sea in the Bay of Bengal is not expected to directly affect Sri Lanka. However, wind currents moving towards the system could continue to bring rainy conditions to the southwestern parts of the country.

He said rainfall may decrease slightly after September 23, but heavy rainfall exceeding 100 mm could return after September 27, making the coming period one that requires close monitoring.

“October and November are extremely critical months regarding the risk of strong winds and landslides,” Karunaratne said, adding that El Niño conditions could make the usual seasonal rainfall more severe.

He noted that the situation may not reach the scale of Cyclone Ditwah, but warned that its impact could still be significant.

Meanwhile, the Irrigation Department has warned that river water levels are rising due to heavy rainfall in the wet zone, creating a risk of minor flooding in several areas.

Irrigation Director L.S. Suriyabandara said rainfall has eased somewhat compared with recent days, but rain continues to affect several areas.

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