Global average temperatures are expected to remain at record or near-record levels over the next five years, according to a new report released by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The report, which combines data from 13 leading international research institutions, warns that warming trends are expected to continue globally, with the Arctic region forecast to warm at an even faster rate than the global average.
According to the report, global average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to remain between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded during 1850–1900.
Researchers noted that 2024 currently stands as the hottest year on record, but there is an 86 percent probability that at least one year within the next five years will surpass that record.
The study further highlights that:
- There is a 91 percent chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
- There is a 75 percent probability that the average temperature across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
- Arctic warming is expected to outpace global averages.
Lead author Dr. Leon Hermansson stated that a developing El Niño climate pattern toward late 2026 could contribute to making 2027 one of the warmest years on record.
Paris Agreement Goals Remain Long-Term
The report notes that temporary increases above 1.5°C do not automatically mean the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement have been permanently missed.
Scientists emphasize that the Paris targets are measured over longer-term averages of around 20 years rather than individual years.
However, researchers warn that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold are becoming increasingly likely and may occur more frequently in the future.
Regional Climate Impacts
The report also points to shifting regional weather patterns.
For example, southeastern Europe, which has recently experienced severe drought conditions, may receive above-average rainfall during the 2026–2030 period.
The findings have been issued to assist meteorological agencies and governments worldwide in preparing for increasingly variable climate conditions over the coming years.
