China and India should build stronger cooperation mechanisms to manage a Himalayan water tower now undergoing climate change.
On October 22, 2026, a powerful magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck Baqing County in Nagqu, Tibet, killing at least 16 people, injuring dozens, and destroying hundreds of homes. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquake resulted from movement along a normal fault within the Tibetan Plateau, where the continuing collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates creates enormous geological stresses. The plateau is still being pushed upward and stretched eastward and westward.
This was no isolated event. Since 1900, the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions have experienced 29 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater. The devastating 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake reached magnitude 8.6 and killed 4,800 people, while the 2010 Yushu earthquake in neighboring Qinghai claimed more than 2,500 lives. The latest earthquake is another reminder that the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau remain among the world’s most geologically unstable regions.
The earthquake came less than two months after another Himalayan catastrophe. On August 26, a massive collapse of glacier ice and rock near the Nepal-Tibet border unleashed a devastating torrent of water, mud, and boulders. According to a USGS assessment, the collapse generated seismic energy equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake, while the resulting debris flow and flood traveled approximately 100 kilometers (62 miles) downstream. The disaster demonstrated how a seemingly remote mountain collapse could rapidly become a transboundary catastrophe, overwhelming settlements and infrastructure far from its source.
These two disasters, one driven by tectonic forces and the other by collapsing ice and rock, expose different dimensions of the same fundamental vulnerability. They also raise an urgent question: what might happen if such forces struck the enormous hydropower complex China is constructing on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in southeastern Tibet? Although neither disaster occurred at the project site, both illustrate the geological and environmental hazards that major infrastructure throughout the Himalayas must confront. The question matters because the Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra upon entering India and eventually flows into Bangladesh, linking the safety of China’s upstream engineering projects to the lives and livelihoods of millions downstream.
China’s project, launched in July 2025, is among the most ambitious hydropower undertakings in history. With an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan (about $170 billion), it involves five cascading hydropower stations designed to exploit the river’s extraordinary energy potential before it enters India, where it becomes the Brahmaputra River, which flows through Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal. Reuters reported that the project could eventually generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, roughly three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam. Beijing presents the project as a major contribution to clean energy and economic development. Its downstream neighbors, however, have reason to worry about consequences that could extend far beyond China’s borders. The project’s appeal and danger both stem from the Himalayas ’ extraordinary geography.
The Yarlung Tsangpo flows eastward across the Tibetan Plateau before making a spectacular turn around the Namcha Barwa massif, cutting through one of the world’s deepest river gorges. The enormous drop in elevation creates exceptional hydropower potential. But this is also one of the most geologically active regions on Earth.
By: Jianli Yang
