India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world, said BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog. “We are a USD 4 trillion economy as I speak,” Subrahmanyam stated, highlighting a favourable geopolitical and economic environment for India.
Citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he noted that India was the fifth largest economy until 2024 but has now surpassed Japan. Only the United States, China, and Germany remain larger. Subrahmanyam added that if current plans proceed, India could become the third largest economy within 2.5 to 3 years.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, released in April, projects India’s GDP to reach USD 4.19 trillion in 2025, slightly exceeding Japan’s estimated GDP of USD 4.187 trillion. Additionally, India’s per capita income is expected to double from USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to USD 2,880 in 2025.
The IMF also forecasts India’s economic growth at 6.2% for 2025-26, a slight reduction from the earlier estimate of 6.5%, due to escalating global trade tensions and uncertainty. Private consumption, especially in rural areas, remains a key growth driver.
Globally, economic growth is projected at 2.8% in 2025, slightly down from earlier estimates, with a modest recovery to 3% expected in 2026.
NITI Aayog’s approach paper titled “Viksit Rajya For Viksit Bharat @ 2047” outlines India’s vision to transform from one of the ‘fragile five’ economies a decade ago to a top five global economy today. The paper aims for India to become a high-income country by 2047, with a projected USD 30 trillion economy and per capita income comparable to today’s developed nations.
The strategic framework to achieve this vision is built around six key pillars:
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Macro-Economic Goals and Strategy
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Empowered Citizens
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A Thriving and Sustainable Economy
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Technology and Innovation Leadership
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A Global Leader, Vishwa Bandhu
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Enabling Factors — Governance, Security, and Justice Delivery
(Source: PTI)
